ChatGPT4o Reveals Predictions on Start of Next Recession
Amidst the impressive performance of various assets in the stock market and cryptocurrency markets, which has boosted the confidence of bulls and diminished the bears, there are still warnings of an impending crisis. Predictions have been made since the beginning of 2024, with some foreseeing an inevitable inflation crisis, others attributing a bubble to AI that is bound to burst, and some believing that only the Federal Reserve can burst the bubble, despite its existence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also recently expressed caution, stating that the growth of the U.S. economy is driven by unsustainable spending and borrowing.
In light of these concerns, Finbold decided to consult OpenAI’s advanced artificial intelligence platform, ChatGPT-4o, to determine when the next recession might occur. After assessing the current state of the economy, ChatGPT concluded that while a crash is imminent, it is not expected to happen immediately. The AI identified several factors that contribute to the increasing risk of a recession, including inflation, interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, high corporate and national debt, vulnerabilities in emerging economies, and the potential for cyberattacks and job loss due to widespread technology adoption.
When asked to identify the regions most vulnerable to the anticipated recession, ChatGPT highlighted developing countries as being at particular risk. The AI also expressed concern about the instability of the Eurozone, suggesting that it could be the epicenter of the crash. On a more positive note, ChatGPT predicted that the technology and healthcare sectors, as well as countries with abundant natural resources, are likely to be less affected by the crisis.
In terms of timing, ChatGPT predicted that the next recession will start on April 15, 2026, and last between 18 and 24 months. Taking into account the current size and trajectory of the global economy, the AI estimated that the worst-case scenario could lead to a reduction of approximately $4.5 trillion in global GDP, while a mild crisis would result in a decrease of about $1.8 trillion.
When analyzing the triggers of a recession, ChatGPT acknowledged some uncertainties in its analysis. It assigned a 75% likelihood to a major crisis starting in 2026 or a nearby year. The AI identified inflation and interest rates as the most likely triggers, with a 70% probability. The current geopolitical situation was also deemed risky, with a 65% chance of sparking a crash. Additionally, debt levels and potential defaults were given a 60% likelihood of triggering a recession. Interestingly, although the technology sector was assessed as having a 60% chance of being the origin of the crisis, ChatGPT did not rank it among the top three likely causes.
It is important to note that ChatGPT’s analysis often emphasizes the importance of technological innovation for humanity’s future, even though it acknowledges the short-term risks associated with the technology sector. The AI explained that while the sector may be risky in the short run, it is expected to be safe in the long run.