Bitcoin Short Interest Under Examination as BTC Approaches $100,000
Throughout most of November, Bitcoin (BTC) has been progressing toward the long-predicted price target of $100,000—sometimes making rapid daily jumps, and at other times inching upward very slowly. This rise to previously unseen highs has attracted a significant number of short positions, driven by institutions, ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO)-afflicted investors, and swing traders. These short positions have either been established as hedges against other cryptocurrency market bets or based on the belief that price peaks between $95,000 and $99,000 are unstable.
Despite what the price action might suggest, short positions, as retrieved from Binance on November 22, 2024, are nowhere near record highs, and indeed, are not close to the monthly highs.
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Specifically, on Friday, 58.39% of accounts were short on BTC, illustrating a widespread belief that, even if $100,000 is not unattainable, a correction will either precede or quickly follow it.
Bitcoin long/short ratio. Source: Binance
November Bitcoin short bets
On the other hand, the fact that shorts dropped about 4% from Thursday, when the ratio was 62.24% short versus 37.76% long, indicates that investors remain optimistic about the Bitcoin bull run despite the 50% surge over the past 30 days.
Finally, the data reveals that the peak of bearish bets occurred shortly after the 2024 presidential elections—62.68% of positions on November 9 were short—and in late October, with the number at 64.03% on the penultimate day of the month.
Bitcoin price chart
Whether the latest short or long positions capitalize on Bitcoin’s upcoming price action, those who have invested at essentially any point since BTC became available have enjoyed significant profits.
As of press time on November 22, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is up 163.88% over the last 12 months, 134.12% year-to-date (YTD), and an impressive 48.52% in the last 30 days, with a press time price of $98,452.
BTC 1-year price chart. Source: Finbold
While it remains uncertain whether long or short bets will yield greater profits, there is a broad consensus among experts that further growth lies ahead for Bitcoin.
For instance, on November 22, Michaël van de Poppe—a prominent cryptocurrency researcher on X—predicted that BTC would hit $100,000 “today.”
#Bitcoin is going to hit the $100K today.
Absolutely insane.
However, the coming corrections are going to be flash crashes, and those moments are the ones to step in if you aren’t already. pic.twitter.com/3WSxm5KM0y— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 22, 2024
Furthermore, BTC’s historical patterns suggest that the current rally could continue all the way to $138,000—maybe even higher—but also warn that near that point, short positions might start to pay off as a correction is almost guaranteed to follow.
Featured image via Shutterstock